Spring training is just around the corner. It's time to get hypothetical and argue for the best offenses in the MLB without any justifiable facts other than previous statistics. Let's look at the projected lineups for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Anaheim Angels.
Blue Jays
Toronto finally made some BIG moves this off season. I was beginning to think the Jays would never attempt to compete with the juggernauts of the East, especially with the rise of the Baltimore Orioles (although I'm not convinced they can repeat their success). But then they sucked the life out of the Florida...I mean, Miami Marlins, took a chance with a steroid user in Melky Cabrera and sacrificed their farm system for the greatest knuckleballer EVER.
-Projected Lineup:
1 Jose Reyes SS
2 Melky Cabrera OF
3 Jose Bautista OF
4 Edwin Encarnacion DH
5 Brett Lawrie 3B
6 Colby Rasmus OF
7 Adam Lind 1B
8 J.P. Arencibia C
9 Emilio Bonifacio 2B
Let's look at some of these players in more detail. First, Jose Reyes. Last year was good, but not great, and I think Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria was expecting numbers like 2011 or 2006 (that was a magical year). Instead, Reyes found himself with numbers similar to 2010; a .287 BA, 40 steals, 11 home runs, 57 RBIs, 12 triples and a .347 OBP. Those numbers might improve with a solid lineup behind him, but I like to think the Mets got the best years out of him (2006-2008).
While 5-8 in the lineup have strong power numbers, it's Bautista and Encarnacion who will drive the offense. But I'm not a fan of projecting success off of one monster year and that's exactly what we have with Encarnacion. Last year he socked 42 HR, 110 RBI, a .280 BA, a .557 SLG and 644 PA (the most in his career). His best year otherwise was 2008 when he hit 26 HR, 68 RBI and other less than stellar numbers. The point is, I'm not comfortable with Edwin as Bautista's protection until he shows this kind of power early next season.
As for Bautista, he's legitimate. After taking the world by storm in 2010 with 54 HR, 124 RBI and a .260 BA, he followed up with an equally impressive 2011 with 43 HR, 103 RBI, and a .302 BA. Unfortunately, Bautista was hurt last year and played only 92 games with 27 HR and 65 RBI and a mediocre .241 BA. But those are still good numbers and if healthy, I'm confident he can reproduce the previous two years of success. But the extent of that success might depend on the the power Encarnacion produces.
Angels
These angels are ruthless. After the mega-blockbuster signing of Albert Pujols last year, they throw even more money at Josh Hamilton (well technically less money than Pujols, but when contracts get near $100 million, I loose track). Looking at both their statistics from 2012, I was surprised by 1) how good a 'bad' year is for Pujols and 2) Hamilton's ability to stay healthy.
-Projected Lineup:
1 Mike Trout OF
2 Erick Aybar SS
3 Albert Pujols 1B
4 Josh Hamilton OF
5 Mark Trumbo DH
6 Howie Kendrick 2B
7 Alberto Callaspo 3B
8 Chris Iannetta C
9 Peter Bourjos OF
Albert Pujols...when I look at his lifetime numbers, I get a chill down my spine. He truly is "The Machine." He has smacked at least 30 home runs every year since he won the Rookie of the Year in 2001. The past two years have been less than ridiculously awesome, including two years in a row with a sub-300 batting average after never ending the season with a batting average under .312 before 2011. Could he be starting his decline? At 32 year old, I certainly hope not. I predict having Hamilton behind him in the lineup will go a long way to making him "The Machine" once again. But if we see numbers like these again (which are still really good numbers), the 'decline' conversation will be in full swing (pardon my pun).
As for Josh Hamilton, he may not be a machine, but he is a "beastly beast" (a term my friend and I coined). Maybe his monster numbers from last year will translate into health and consistency. Those numbers include 43 home runs, 128 RBIs, 636 PA, .354 OBP and a .577 SLG. But there are consistency issues which make me just a little nervous. His numbers declined in the second half of 2012 and he didn't play well in the crucial Wild Card playoff game, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts. But it's Hamilton's inconsistent health record over the last three years, when he missed at least a full month of games each year, that drove his contract down to 5 years in a world where everyone wants job security for life. But overall, I expect great things from him, "terrible, but great" (quote from Olivander in Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone....it doesn't make much sense, but it was too good to pass up).
The Better Offense
I really feel there can be a case for either team having a better offense. Anaheim has 3 super stars in Trout, Pujols and Hamilton (and throw in Mark Trumbo for good measure), but Toronto has more players with generally better statistics than the overall lineup of the Angels. Let's look at a comparison of the lineups rating each player on a scale of overall offensive value to their team (1 to 10) and see which team is overall more offensively minded.
| Toronto | Score | Anaheim | Score | |
| Jose Reyes SS | 6 | Mike Trout OF | 10 | |
| Melky Cabrera OF | 7 | Erick Aybar SS | 5 | |
| Jose Bautista OF | 10 | Albert Pujols 1B | 10 | |
| Edwin Encarnacion DH | 8 | Josh Hamilton OF | 9 | |
| Brett Lawrie 3B | 6 | Mark Trumbo DH | 8 | |
| Colby Rasmus OF | 7 | Howie Kendrick 2B | 5 | |
| Adam Lind 1B | 6 | Alberto Callaspo 3B | 4 | |
| J.P. Arencibia C | 6 | Chris Iannetta C | 5 | |
| Emilio Bonifacio 2B | 4 | Peter Bourjos OF | 5 | |
| Total Offensive Value | 60 | Total OffensiveValue | 61 |
Although even my completely arbitrary rating scheme shows the Angels with the better offense, it's extremely close. These rankings are for offense statistics only, so great defensive play and stolen bases were not factors. The point is, the Angels 6-9 positions are weaker than the Blue Jays 6-9 positions. An opposing pitcher can think to himself, "Damn it, I've got to face Pujols, Hamilton and Trumbo, but at least I get a break after that...until Trout." The same cannot be said for a pitcher facing the Blue Jays.
I will be following these offenses very closely this year, as I am intrigued by the combinations of talent. But no matter what we predict, anything can happen. That's why you play all 162 games.
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